Bitcoin (BTC), which is currently at $40,000, is in a see-saw fight between the bears and bulls. As the United States Federal Reserve makes its policy decision on March 16, volatility will likely continue.
Analyst Willy Woo believes that Bitcoin may witness a capitulation event. This is based on a cost basis. It measures the amount of Bitcoin that has been transferred from inexperienced traders to more experienced traders. These sharp drops usually indicate market bottom formation.
Everyday cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Glassnode believes that there has been no capitulation because the sell-offs were absorbed by a strong market. Glassnode believes that 82% of short-term holders are at risk, but this is a late-stage bearish market behavior in which investors keep their coins until they become profitable.
Could the Fed’s decision to change its policy be a sign of a trend in Bitcoin and other altcoins. Let’s look at the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to see.
Bitcoin fell below the moving averages on March 15, but the candlestick’s long tail indicates that there is strong demand at lower levels. Bulls have continued to buy and have lifted the price above the SMA (50-day simple moving average) ($40,000.
Daily chart of BTC/USDT Source: TradingView
If the bulls can maintain the price above 50-day SMA, then the BTC/USDT pairing could rally to the overhead area between $45,400 & the resistance line for the ascending channel. This zone is expected to be defended by the bears.
The pair could stay within the channel for several more days if the price moves down from the overhead area. In the short-term, range bound action is also possible due to the flat moving averages near the midpoint and the relative strength indicator (RSI), which are both close to the midpoint.
Contrary to the assumption, bears will continue to sell higher levels if the price falls below the moving averages. The bears will attempt to lower the price below the channel support line and resume the downtrend.
Ether (ETH), bounced off of the support line in the symmetrical triangle, and buyers are trying to push the price higher than the 50-day SMA ($2,763).
Daily chart of ETH/USDT Source: TradingView
The price could rise to $3,000 psychologically, and then to the resistance level of the triangle if they succeed. To signal a change in trend, the bulls must push the price higher than the triangle.
A symmetrical triangle has been formed by the RSI, and a breakout could indicate that buyers have the upper hand.
If the price falls below the support line and the current level, this bullish view will be invalidated. This could lead to a drop of up to $2159
Although the buyers want to push BNB higher than the moving averages, the bears will likely have other plans. They will try to stop the recovery from moving near the averages, just as they did on three occasions before.
Daily chart BNB/USDT TradingView
The moving averages have been flattening and the RSI is above 48. This indicates that bulls may be trying to make a comeback. The BNB/USDT pair could reach $425 if buyers can drive the price higher than the 50-day SMA (388) and then rise to $445.
Contrary to popular belief, if the price falls below the moving averages it will indicate that sentiment is still negative and traders are selling at resistance levels. The bears will attempt to lower the price below $350, which is the strong support.
On March 12, Ripple (XRP), lost its downtrend line and fell to the moving averages. Although the bulls have tried to defend the moving averages, it has not been able to rebound strongly.
Daily chart of XRP/USDT Source: TradingView
Both moving averages have converged and the RSI is close to the midpoint. This indicates a balance between supply/demand. To gain an upper hand, buyers will need to push the price higher than the downtrend line. The XRP/USDT currency pair could rally to $0.91, and then to $1.
However, bears will win if the price falls below $0.69. The pair could slide to $0.62, the strong support level.
Terra’s LUNA token rose above $94 overhead resistance on March 14, but the bulls couldn’t sustain higher levels. On March 15, the bears brought the price down to $94
Daily chart of LUNA/USDT Source: TradingView
Now, the bears will try to keep the price below the 20 day exponential moving average (EMA), ($84). The LUNA/USDT exchange rate could fall to $70 if they succeed. This could indicate that bullish momentum is weakening.
Contrary to popular belief, if the price moves above the current level, or rebounds from the 20-day EMA then buyers will attempt to push it towards $105. The resumption or continuation of the uptrend could be indicated by a break above and close to this resistance. The pair could rally first to $115, and then to $125.
Solana (SOL), which was pushed back by the bulls, climbed above $81 on March 14 and indicated that the recent collapse on March 13 might have been a bear trap.
Daily chart of SOL/USDT Source: TradingView
The buyers want to push the price higher than the 20-day EMA ($86). The SOL/USDT pair may rally to the downtrend line if they succeed. This level is important to watch as a break or close above it could signal a change in trend. The overhead resistance at $122 could be a rally.
If the price falls below $77, this positive outlook will be null. This could signal the resumption or extension of the downtrend.
Cardano (ADA), is trying to climb above the 20-day EMA ($0.85), but bears are expected mount a strong resistance at the resistance.
Daily chart ADA/USDT Source: TradingView
The ADA/USDT pairing could fall to $0.74 if the price falls below the current level. This level is crucial for bulls to protect as a crack could lead to the pair falling to $0.68.
Alternatively, if price breaks above the 20-day EMA and closes above it, the pair may attempt a rally towards the psychological level of $1. This resistance level will likely act as a strong support. The pair could remain range-bound between $1.74 and $0.74 for a few more days if the price falls below this resistance.
Related: Bitcoin price rises to $41K after hopes for peace in Eastern Europe push Bitcoin higher
Avalanche (AVAX), which has been below the uptrend line from March 13, is still holding below $64. However, the bears haven’t been able capitalize on this weakness to sink the price below $64. This suggests that there are not many sellers at lower levels.
Daily chart of AVAX/USDT Source: TradingView
Bulls are trying to get the price above the uptrend line, and the moving averages. The AVAX/USDT pairing could reach the downtrend line in the descending channel if they succeed. This level is important to monitor as the bears have successfully defended resistance on four occasions previously.
The bears will not relent if the price falls below the downtrend line. The sellers will attempt to bring the price down below $64.
If bulls push the price higher than the channel, it could indicate that the downtrend is over. The psychological level of $100 could be reached and the pair could rally.
For the past two days Polkadot has traded close to the 20 day EMA ($17), indicating that bulls are buying dips.
Daily chart of DOT/USDT Source: TradingView
The bears are losing their grip on the market due to the flattish moving averages, and the RSI at the midpoint. Expect the bulls to rally above $19 overhead resistance.
If they are able to pull it off the USDT/DOTT pair could reach $23, where bears might pose a challenge. A double bottom pattern would be completed by a break and close above that level.
If the price falls below $16, this positive outlook will be invalidated. This could lead to a drop in the price to $14
Dogecoin (DOGE), which was down from the 20-day EMA ($0.12) March 14, indicated that bears are selling at higher levels.
Daily chart of DOGE/USDT Source: TradingView
The bulls haven’t allowed the price below $0.10, which is a minor positive. This could mean that the DOGE/USDT pairs will remain range bound between $0.12 to $0.10 for a few days.
The first sign that selling pressure is decreasing could be a break above the 20-day EMA. The bulls will attempt to push the pair higher than the 50-day SMA ($0.13) to open the way for a rally to $0.17.
Alternativly, if the price falls below $0.10, selling could intensify, and the pair might drop to $0.06.
Risk is inherent in every investment or trading move. Before making any investment or trading move, you should do your research.
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I am a technology and gaming writer by profession. I love NFT’s and play to earn gaming such as Axie Infinity. I love writing about anything on the blockchain, especially gaming and entertainment. I often sing, write or draw to portray my feelings. When it comes to my free time or you can say ‘ME-TIME’, I love to play with my cat, sleep an extra hour, or play my favorite video games.