Bitcoin (BTC), which fell below $38,000 on February 21, was under pressure from the bulls who are trying to stop the slide and begin a recovery. Expectations of a strong rally have been tempered by the sustained weakness in Bitcoin (BTC) in 2022.
Du Jun, co-founder of Huobi’s crypto exchange, said that if the Bitcoin half-life cycle is repeated, then the current weakness could signal the beginning of a bearish market. Jun believes the next Bitcoin bull market will begin at the end or beginning of 2024.
Everyday cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
The geopolitical developments in Russia and Ukraine will have a short-term impact on crypto markets. They will also be affected by cues from U.S. Federal Reserve regarding its tightening cycle, and the performance of assets deemed risky.
Will Bitcoin and other altcoins rebound from recent lows? Or will selling momentum pick up? Let’s look at the charts for the top 10 cryptocurrencies to see what happens.
Bitcoin fell below its key support of $39,600 and closed below it on February 20. On February 21, the selling resumed and the bears pulled down the price to $37.213.63.
Daily chart of BTC/USDT Source: TradingView
The relative strength index (RSI), which has been in negative territory for the past few days, and the 20-day exponentially moving average (EMA) ($40986) have both fallen. This shows that the most likely path to downside is the one.
Buyers are trying to push the price above the $39,600 breakdown level. This is a crucial level to monitor because bears could turn this resistance into resistance and sell the BTC/USDT pair to the $36,250-35,507.01 support zone.
If bulls continue pushing the price above $39600 and the moving averages it will signal strong demand at lower levels. This could lead to a rally up to $45,821.
On February 18, Ether (ETH), re-entered descending channel. This was the first sign that the recovery was slowing down. On February 19, the bulls attempted to push the price above the channel, but the bears maintained their pressure.
Daily chart of ETH/USDT Source: TradingView
The ETH/USDT currency pair fell below $2,652 support on February 20, but sellers were unable to capitalize on this. This is a sign of strong buying at lower levels. The price rebounded strongly on February 21st and buyers are pushing the pair higher than the resistance line.
The pair may challenge the moving averages if they succeed. The first sign of strength could be a break or close to the 50-day simple average (SMA), which is $2,971.
If the price falls below $2652 and the current level is reached, the pair could slide to $2316 and then $2159.
Binance Coin (BNB), which was pushed by the bulls above the downtrend line in the descending channel on February 19, failed to regain its momentum.
Daily chart BNB/USDT TradingView
On February 20, the selling recommenced and the bears pulled down the price below $390.50. This could have caused stops by traders who might have bought the break and closed above the channel. The candlestick’s long wick of February 21 shows that bears are trying turn the $390.50 resistance level into resistance.
The BNB/USDT pair may drop to the strong support zone of $330 to $320 if bears push the price below $357.40. To indicate that bears are losing their grip, the bulls must push the price higher than the 50-day SMA ($422).
Ripple (XRP), bounced off the $0.75 resistance on February 18, but the relief rally once again failed to reach the overhead resistance of $0.85 on February 19. This is a sign that bears are aggressively defending the level.
Daily chart of XRP/USDT Source: TradingView
The price has remained at the strong support zone of the moving averages due to renewed selling. If the support zone cracks, there may be several stops and the XRP/USDT currency pair could fall to $0.65 or $0.60.
If the price bounces off the support zone, bulls will try to push the pair higher than the downtrend line or the overhead resistance at $0.85. The pair could rally to $1 if they succeed.
Cardano (ADA), broke and closed below $1 psychological level on February 18. This indicates that the downtrend is returning. On February 19, the bulls drove the price up to $1, but they were unable to maintain the higher levels.
Daily chart ADA/USDT Source: TradingView
The candlestick’s long wick of February 21st shows that bears are trying to turn resistance into support. The selling could accelerate if the price drops below $1 and the ADA/USDT pairing could fall to $0.80 as the next strong support.
If the price rises above the 50 day SMA ($1.15) it will be a sign that the markets have rejected lower levels. This could lead to a short squeeze. The pair could rally to $1.60.
Solana (SOL), formed a Doji candlestick pattern with long legs on February 20, which indicated indecision between the bears and bulls. On February 21, the bulls tried to solve the uncertainty to the upside, but the bears successfully defended their 20-day EMA ($100).
Daily chart of SOL/USDT Source: TradingView
Both moving averages are falling and the RSI trades below 38. This indicates that bears have the upper hand. Sellers will attempt to lower the SOL/USDT currency pair below $80.83.
The pair may resume its downward trend if they succeed. $66 is the next support. If the price breaks or sustains above the 20 day EMA, this bearish view will be invalidated.
The bulls will attempt to push the pair higher than the channel resistance line and signal a possible trend shift.
Avalanche (AVAX), fell below the moving averages on February 20, and the uptrendline on February 20, suggesting that higher levels continue to attract bear selling.
Daily chart of AVAX/USDT Source: TradingView
Bulls attempted to push the price above the uptrend line of February 2, but the candlestick’s long wick suggests that bears are trying to defend the breakpoint level. The AVAX/USDT pair could slip further to $65. If the price falls below $74.70 and continues to sustain,
The RSI is in the negative zone, and the 20-day EMA ($82), has begun to fall. This indicates that bears hold the upper hand. If the price breaks above the downtrend line and rebounds from the current level, this negative view will be invalidated. This could lead to a rally towards the psychological level of $100.
Related: Solana’s weekend bounce could turn into a bull trap — Will the SOL price plummet to $60 next time?
The Feb. 20 candlestick’s long tail indicates that buyers are protecting the $46.50 support. Terra’s LUNA token may now rise to the $20 EMA ($54), where bears will mount a strong defense.
Daily chart of LUNA/USDT Source: TradingView
The price could fall below the support zone of $46.50 to $43.44 if it does not turn down from the 20-day EMA. This could send the LUNA/USDT-pair to $37.50 support.
If bulls push the price higher than the 20-day EMA, it could lead to a rise to the downtrend line in the descending channel. To indicate a change in trend, bulls will need to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($63).
Dogecoin (DOGE), which attempted to surpass the 20-day EMA ($0.14) Feb. 19, failed. The candlestick’s long wick suggests that bears are defending their resistance.
Daily chart of DOGE/USDT Source: TradingView
The moving averages are both falling and the RSI has fallen to the negative zone. This indicates that bears have the upper hand. The greater chance of price dropping to $0.12 if the price remains below the moving averages for a longer period.
This level is expected to be defended aggressively by the bulls, as a breach below it could lead to a decrease in psychological support at $0.10.
If the price rises above the 50 day SMA ($0.15), this negative view will be invalidated in the short-term. This could propel the DOGE/USDT exchange rate to $0.17
The failure of Polkadot (DOT) to recover from the strong support at $16.81 suggests a lack in demand at higher levels. This raises the risk of a further decline.
Daily chart of DOT/USDT Source: TradingView
If bears pull back and keep the price below $16.81 the selling could accelerate. The DOT/USDT pair may drop to $13 and then retest the critical support of $10.37. The path of least resistance is indicated by the RSI below 37 and downsloping moving mean.
A break above the downtrend line will be the first sign of strength. This move could lead to a possible up-move towards the 50-day SMA ($21.67), and then to $23.19.
Risk is inherent in every investment or trading move. Before making any investment or trading move, you should do your research.
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I am a technology and gaming writer by profession. I love NFT’s and play to earn gaming such as Axie Infinity. I love writing about anything on the blockchain, especially gaming and entertainment. I often sing, write or draw to portray my feelings. When it comes to my free time or you can say ‘ME-TIME’, I love to play with my cat, sleep an extra hour, or play my favorite video games.