Price analysis 10/4: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, SOL, XRP, DOT, DOGE, LUNA, UNI

Bitcoin (BTC), which is currently facing rejection at $50,000, indicates that bears will not give up easily. Analysts expect Bitcoin to rise in the final quarter of this year. PlanB, a stock-to-flow model creator, says that the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin in October would be $63,000 and $98,000 respectively.

PlanBs bullish forecast is not unique. TechDev, a Twitter commentator and trader, suggests that the second leg in the 2021 bull market may be just beginning. TechDev used Bitcoins relative strength indicator (RSI) during the four-year cycle. TechDev predicts that Bitcoins cycle peak will be at $200,000.

Everyday cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Historical projections might point to a rally in October, but the rise may not be linear. According to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, the volatility of the US equity market in October was 36% more than that for the rest of the 11 months. Traders could be on a rollercoaster ride this October due to Bitcoins high correlation to the S&P 500.

Bitcoin could follow its historical precedent and rally to the upside. Will altcoins also join the party? Lets look at the charts for the top 10 cryptocurrency coins to find out.


Although Bitcoin soared above the overhead resistance of $48,843.20 on October 3, the candlesticks long wick indicates that the bears are aggressively defending this level. For the past two days, the price traded between the 50-day simple movement average (SMA) of $48,843.20 and $46,667 for the last 50 days.

Daily chart of BTC/USDT Source: TradingView

Bulls can drive the price higher than the overhead resistance and the BTC/USDT pairs could gain momentum. The pair could rally to $50,000, and then to $52,920.

The 20-day exponential moving mean (EMA) ($45,478) is up. The RSI is now in the positive territory, indicating that the path of least resistance leads to the upside.

Contrary to popular belief, if bears push the price below 50-day SMA, then the pair could fall to the 20-day EMA. This support can be rebounded and bulls will attempt to overcome the overhead hurdle.

If the price falls below the 20-day EMA, the advantage will be in the favor of bears. The price could drop to the 100 day SMA (41,935).


Although Ether (ETH), was pushed above the downtrend line on Oct. 1 and the moving averages, the bears are not giving up yet. The sellers want to stop the up-move at $3,500 and bring the price below the 50-day SMA ($3,297).

Daily chart of ETH/USDT Source: TradingView

If they can do so, the ETH/USDT exchange rate could fall to the $20-day EMA ($3,194). This support is crucial for bulls to protect as a break below it can attract more selling. The pair could then fall to $3,000 psychologically and then to the 100-day SMA ($2,841).

The bulls could also attempt to push the price higher than $3,500 if the price bounces off the moving averages. If the price holds above resistance, it could climb to $3,676.28 or even to $4,000.


Binance Coin (BNB), has been experiencing strong resistance at the overhead resistance of $433, but bulls have not lost much ground. This suggests that buyers are holding onto their positions in anticipation of a higher price.

Daily chart BNB/USDT TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($395) is up, and the RSI remains in the positive territory. This indicates a slight advantage for the bulls. The BNB/USDT pair can gain momentum if buyers continue to drive the price higher than $433 and hold it there for a while. It could rally to $518.90.

Contrary to popular belief, if the price falls below the current level, it may fall to the 20-day EMA. The bulls will attempt to push the pair higher than $433 if the price bounces off of this level. The pair could remain range bound for a few more days if it breaks and closes below the 20-day EMA.


For the past two days, the bulls pushed Cardano (+ADA) above the 20 day EMA ($2.25) but they couldnt sustain higher levels. This indicates that sentiment is still negative and traders are defending 20-day EMA.

Daily chart ADA/USDT Source: TradingView

The price fell from the Oct. 4 20-day EMA and the bears are now trying to bring the ADA/USDT pairs to $1.94. The pair could see aggressive selling and plunge to $1.60 if this level is not reached.

If the price rises from its current level, or rebounds off $1.94 support, and rises above 20-day EMA, this negative view will be invalidated. The price could rally to the 50 day SMA ($2.46), where bears might again put up stiff resistance. Breaking above this level could open the way for a move up to $2.97.


Solana (SOL), reached the 61.8% Fibonacci level of retracement at $177.80 Oct. 3. This resistance level acts as a strong resistance. The bears want to push the price down to the $20 EMA ($150).

Daily chart of SOL/USDT Source: TradingView

It will indicate that bulls are buying dips if the price rebounds from current levels or the 20 day EMA. This will increase the likelihood of a break above $177.80. The SOL/USDT pair could reach $200, then test the record at $216.

If the price falls below the current level, and then breaks below the 20 day EMA, traders may be closing their positions. The price of the pair could drop to the 50 day SMA ($129), or to $116.


RIpple (XRP), which rose above the $20-day EMA ($1.01) Oct. 1, and bulls attempted to push it above the $1.07 overhead support Oct. 3. The candlesticks long wick suggests that bears are fighting for the 50-day SMA ($1.10) with force.

Daily chart of XRP/USDT Source: TradingView

The current price is stuck between the 20-day EMA (EMA) and the 50-day SMA (SMA). Both moving averages are flattish, and the RSI is close to the midpoint. This indicates a balance between supply/demand.

If the price breaks or sustains above 50-day SMA, this balance will be in buyers favor. The XRP/USDT currency pair could then begin its climb towards $1.41 as resistance.

The reverse could be true. If the price breaks below the 20-day EMA and continues to fall, the pair could plummet to the 100 day SMA ($0.90). If the price breaks below this support, it could indicate that bears have returned to control.


Polkadot, (DOT), broke above the moving and downtrend lines on Oct. 1. This was the first sign that bears might be losing their grip. On Oct. 2, bulls attempted to push the price higher than the right shoulder of the Head and Shoulders pattern, but the candlesticks long wick indicates that sellers are selling at higher levels.

Daily chart of DOT/USDT Source: TradingView

On Oct. 3, the DOT/USDT pair created a Doji candlestick structure, indicating uncertainty among the bulls as well as the bears. The uncertainty has turned to the downside since Oct. 4, and the bears are trying lower the price below their moving averages.

If they are successful, it will indicate that sentiment is still negative and traders are buying rallies. The neckline of H&S could be challenged by the pair.

If the price bounces off the moving averages, bulls will attempt to push the price higher than the right shoulder, and retest the critical resistance of $38.77.

Related: Is Axie Infinity too hot? After the 100% QTD rally, AXS prices hit a record high


Dogecoin (DOGE), which recovered to the 20 day EMA ($0.22) Oct. 1, but bulls have not been able withstand the price above that resistance for the past few days. This indicates that sentiment is negative, and bears are selling during rallies.

Daily chart of DOGE/USDT Source: TradingView

On Oct. 4, the long-lived Doji candlestick pattern shows that bulls are buying at $0.21 support, while bears sell near the 100-day SMA ($0.24). The DOGE/USDT pair may drop to $0.19 if this uncertainty is resolved to the downside.

Contrarily, if bulls continue to drive the price above the 100 day SMA, the pair may rally to the downtrendline, which could act as stiff resistance. If the price breaks and closes above this level, it will signal that the correction is over.


The Oct. 3 candlesticks long wick suggests that bears tried to defend $45.01 but couldnt sustain lower levels. The Oct. 4 bullish buying drove Terra protocols LUNA token up to a new record high.

Daily chart of LUNA/USDT Source: TradingView

Bulls that keep the price above $45.01 will signal the beginning of an uptrend. Bulls have control of the market thanks to the rising moving averages, and the positive RSI zone. If this psychological hurdle is overcome, then the LUNA/USDT pairing could rise to $50.

If the price does not sustain above $45.01, bears will attempt to bring it down to the 20 day EMA ($37.45). This support will be strong and the bulls will not lose their grip. To gain the upper hand, the bears must sink below the 50-day SMA ($33.56), and keep it there.


Uniswap (UNI), rose above the 50 day SMA ($25.46 on Oct. 2, but the candlesticks long wick suggests that bears were selling at higher levels. Altcoins Oct. 3 candlestick pattern formed inside, indicating that bears and bulls are not indecisive.

Daily chart of UNI/USDT Source: TradingView

The uncertainty settled to the downside, and bears pulled the price down to the 20-day EMA ($24.02 on Oct. 4). However, a positive sign is the fact that bulls bought aggressively the dip as shown by the long tail of the days candlestick.

If the price remains above $25, bulls will attempt to push the UNI/USDT pairing above $27.62. The pair could test the critical resistance of $31.41 above this level.

The pair could fall to $22 if it breaks below the moving averages. This is an important support that bulls must defend as a crack could cause a decline to $18.

Risk is inherent in every investment or trading move. Before making any investment or trading move, you should do your research.

HitBTC exchange provides market data.

Lillian Call

I am a technology and gaming writer by profession. I love NFT's and play to earn gaming such as Axie Infinity. I love writing about anything on the blockchain, especially gaming and entertainment. I often sing, write or draw to portray my feelings. When it comes to my free time or you can say ‘ME-TIME’, I love to play with my cat, sleep an extra hour, or play my favorite video games.